On the first Day of Christmas My True Love gave me Etsy Stock

Getting in the holiday spirit, we started working on that Christmas shopping list which now includes opening a long position on Etsy Stock @ $12.59 with an intended exit at $13.75 by the close of the year.

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While our sentiments regarding Etsy as a selling venue for NiciArt and Nici’s Picks would be perform down from outperform just a few months ago, the arguments for a stock run up to $13.75 and most likely well beyond include:

  • Oversold
  • Tech stock rebound from dip following the Trump win
  • Near $16.00 high last month
  • Holiday sales
  • Bullish social media pumpers out in force
  • Citi Bank target of $20.00
  • Investors primed for risk taking after DRYS went up 1500% in less than a week
  • Cash from shipping rally, AMD, WNR, and other huge gainers is in play
  • Bearish sentiments about a Trump economy may keep markets active as investors look for plays before 2017
  • Bullish sentiments about a Trump economy might convince some longs to increase their positions or new money to enter the markets
  • Etsy shaking off the “hipster only” reputation and focusing on being a marketplace for everyday gifts, housewares, vintage, decoration, and holiday gifts
  • No obvious negative set-ups or patterns on the charts as of Friday

After a long run of buy and hold with a portfolio overweight in REITs, future interest rate hikes, upward trends in 10 yr notes and a possible slowdown in real estate have us venturing into swing trading, short term holds, options, and 1-3 year longs with the potential for significant upsides.

Another particularly interesting buy this week will be Horizon Technical Finance HRZN with an attractive 11% dividend. Completely underfollowed and off the radar, Horizon’s technical analysis is enough to send most investors running for the hills before even investigating further, however their customer portfolio of private emerging technology and life sciences is a rather unique market for providing capitalization services with enough upside to convince me to consider a 1-2 year long position at the current price of $10.77.

Whenever the question about investing or Etsy stock emerges in the Etsy forums, I am always surprised by the strong sense of risk aversion and the view that investing is synonymous with gambling or taking a trip to Vegas.

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I certainly do not want to negate the risks, however bad decisions often mean being forced to hold or taking a small loss that is most often negligible amongst the gains. Choosing to sell the same product year over year, seeking forum sympathy when the sales are slow, and avoiding risk is far more dangerous in my opinion than taking calculated risks to get ahead.